Monday 30 November 2009

One week left to go and lots to do

As I prepare for the two weeks of watching and participating in the COP 15 negotiations, one question keeps coming my way: What do I think will happen in Copenhagen?

Watching the daily reports from the around the world – as until we all get to COP 15 that remains our best source of information – it feels like watching a poker game without being able to see the cards. Well that is not quite true, I do have some sense of where the issues might be headed and where the most pressure is being applied. Take the China story last week, with a pledge to cut their 2005 baseline emissions by up to 45% by 2020.
The USA and others have also made firm commitments (you can track individual commitments here). Finally, there was good news from the Commonwealth summit on funding for developing nations over the weekend. So we have movement on two of the major parts – commitments and funding.

As things stand right now, I am optimistic, but then ‘my glass is half full not half empty’. But I am also aware as this is like a poker game we will not really see the shape of things until very late in the day. When I get to Denmark I will be following events as they unfold, both through the meetings that I will be attending and also through the UNFCCC Facebook, Twitter and official websites. I like to check ‘corridor gossip’ out.

The Barcelona negotiations in November seemed to hint at marine being covered but perhaps not as far as I was initially expecting. This leaves Conference of parties (to UNFCCC) to work through IMO for marine and ICAO for aviation to manage GHG issues.

The marine industry has been quite busy preparing for COP 15 with Intertanko’s new Chairman Graham Westgarth saying, “The tanker industry will be able to reach a target of a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 if the European Commission introduces this target.” My colleague Nick Brown will be posting on this blog later in the week on the new Lab-on-a-Ship™ (LOAS), an innovation in fuel management for the shipping industry.

As you might have guessed, I will be following the marine sector negotiations very closely. I will let you know what I find out over the next three weeks. I have a feeling that “expect the unexpected” might be the word of the day. I will also keep an eye on other major developments that might affect us all.

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