CCS and the Crystal Ball

As with Dr. Warris, the one question that is asked most frequently as the world watches the developments leading up to the COP 15 negotiations is, “What do I think will happen in Copenhagen?”

Both the mainstream media and alternative media outlets provide a plethora of different views and prognostications on the outcome of the latest round of climate change negotiations. But the main question for me is not “What will be the outcome?” but “Is our global climate changing?”.

I am a strong believer in fundamentals. Many sceptics push the view that our biosphere has natural warming and cooling cycles, and that currently we are entering a warming trend.
Indeed, as I skim through the many graphs and tables of Professor Pilmer’s book , I can see that our biosphere could be entering a natural warming trend, although the ‘natural cycles’ described are anything but regular in time period. Interestingly, I recently read a paper concerning the last time the Earth’s climate contained as much CO2 as today – 15 million years ago. As we know from palaeontology, the world was much warmer then, the sea levels much higher, and the flora and fauna much different.
What I find very interesting is that within the climate change debate, we miss one important point: Humans have irrevocably changed the Earth’s biosphere as a result of unrestrained energy production from ‘buried sunshine’ sources – coal, oil, and natural gas. The emissions from these energy sources by far outweigh those from ‘natural’ sources such as volcanoes.

So let’s go back to fundamentals: the energy sources we use everyday emit more ‘climate forcing’ gases than volcanoes and other natural catastrophes. Prehistory will tell us that cataclysmic geologic events resulted in significant climate shifts due to massive releases of climate forcing gases – e.g. CO2 – over a short duration, with subsequent changes to the evolution of flora and fauna. By extension, then, one could (possibly) conclude that our demand for ever more energy services coupled with the (short term) ease of supply of those services will affect global climate – especially given that massive quantities of climate forcing gases have been released in a very short time period (approx. 200 years).
So what does all this mean? Without a doubt, I believe that we will need to change how we both supply and use energy. As evidenced by the level of participation at the upcoming COP15 climate conference, our global society is focused on finding ways to adapt to a changing climate. From the ‘end-of-pipe’ solutions like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to ‘cradle-to-cradle’ applications like algae-based biodiesel and large-scale solar power,our global society is driving energy technology innovations on a scale not seen before.

So what do I think will happen in Copenhagen? Well, what I would like to happen is that CCS is finally included in CDM, which will give the necessary incentives to kickstart a number of CCS projects worldwide. What I would also like to happen is an unequivocal recognition from political leaders that: a) climate change is occurring; and that b) a strong set of policies, regulations, and incentives must be put in place to ensure that we can successfully adapt to our changing climate. Will the negotiations in Copenhagen be the ‘nail in the coffin’ for the coal, oil, and natural gas energy companies? No. As our demand for energy services continues to increase, the ‘legacy’ energy sources will continue to supply our energy needs in the short term. However, as already noted most recently by the IEA, continuing to ignore the climate change debate will have severe economic impacts.

What do I think will happen in Copenhagen? I am still shining my crystal ball.