Copenhagen Accord, what are bloggers saying today?

Today's blog is the final daily update of the Lloyd's Register COP 15 series. We will be back after the holidays with an update from each of our key bloggers. They will each share their thoughts on the Copenhagen Accord and what it might mean for their respective areas of expertise.
Here are what some of the most influential climate change blogs have to say about the conference's outcome.

1) The BBC's environment analyst Roger Harrabin in his blog today, said

World leaders will surely never again agree to meet on this issue in parallel with the UN negotiating process. It was too bloody and it will have muddied many of their reputations.

2) The BBC's correspondent's log shows what the key players reactions were as the deal was being done.
3) The climateprogress.org blog sees the Copenhagen Accord as boosting the chances that the US Senate will pass binding legislation regarding the reduction of US emissions.
4) The Washington Post's analysis of the Accord is interesting, as they see the outcome as a clear signal that the US and China will be dictating future global climate change policy.
5) The Climate Interactive research team are amongst the first to analyse the numbers in the Accord, and they are less than impressed, saying

simulations of the C-ROADS model show a large gap between the targets in the final Copenhagen agreement and the commitments offered by individual nations.

6) Oneworld.net's on location blogger has an excellent post on the final hours of negotiations and the painful decisions that world leaders had to make in those final moments:

Every leader had to decide what response, at this extraordinarily precarious moment in human history, would most likely result in success down the road.

Mohamed Nasheed knows the science, he knows the politics, and I'm confident he's acting in the best interest of stabilizing the global climate as much and as soon as humanly possible. If this "deal" is good enough for him, then it's good enough for me.

We will be back in January with a further update on what COP 15 and the Copenhagen Accord means for Lloyd's Register and our clients.

Happy Holidays!

Alex Briggs

Paradigm shift or not?

When I set out on this ‘journey’ Iike many others I hoped that we, as the international community, could demonstrate that we could pull together and overcome out differences. Yes mainly – ‘my glass is half full’ and somewhere I trust in the innate goodness of us, the human race.  We came to Copenhagen with the expectation that we would get an agreement and that we would bridge the three key issues:

• Emissions reductions for developed countries;
• Adaptation funding;
• Commitments by the developing countries that are responsible for the fastest growth in GHG emissions – not targets but what we had already seen from China and others about reducing their CO₂ intensity.

From a marine perspective we were also expecting a pragmatic approach to bunker fuels that left the responsibility with IMO via the Conference of the Parties as well as left the IMO with the ‘right’ to develop the approach to regulating GHG emissions in the international bunker fuel area.

A number of us saw the outcome from Copenhagen as setting the stage for the paradigm shift that is barely visible as yet but which energy issues (see Sean’s blog on ‘peak everything’) as well as other emerging challenges with our climate is beginning to push. Paradigm shifts are normal, we have dealt with them many times before. For example the marine industry has in propulsion terms seen the shift from sail to steam to diesel in the last 250 years, just looking at Lloyd's Register rules. But Ian in his blog explained why we resist ‘paradigm shifts’ as humans. But they happen anyway, just think about the growth in mobile communications and systems arena over the last 20 years.

The memory from the last few days has been one of media hype, major political leaders on our television screens, arguments about which texts to use and little focus on the myriads of national negotiators working through the night the last few days to get something there for the final moment (note some political leaders also worked long hours in Bella Centre or in bilateral or multilateral talks). And from a number of us serious concerns that we may miss some vital pieces of the ‘Lego brick’ tower we are constructing because we are now rushing. Although without the pressure to get a ‘deal’ we may not even have started to construct our ‘Lego brick’ tower (I hope it is not going to be like the ‘tower of Babylon’).

So is the outcome setting the stage? and what did we get?

So where are we today, after we have all got some sleep, in terms of the aims outlined above. Well not where we wanted to be, no indication that we may get a paradigm shift and the ‘Lego brick’ tower seems like the ‘tower of Babylon’ to have collapsed at the end. So what we have had is:

• No agreement and hence a political question ‘can we as the human race reach an international agreement across the whole world?’ Be fascinating to see what the ‘Copenhagen Outcome’ will result in and where the discussion goes in Bonn in June and Mexico in December 2010.
• No incentives for us as human to recognise what is happening (note none of the leaders here [in total 119] disagreed with the climate change science)
• No clear signal to business to continue to invest in:
• clean operations and technologies;
• market mechanism to help find the money we need for adaptation.

On the international bunker fuel discussions we got no decision. Although we need to remember that we have the existing Kyoto Protocol (Article 2.2) and we have uncertainty on what regional developments we may see as a potential product of the ‘Copenhagen Outcome’.

On a human level, it has been a fascinating journey. Covering, as I suspected two weeks ago ‘…the whole gamut of emotions and energy from exhaustion to exhilaration. As well as generating not a few headaches (real and virtual) and a large amount of words (spoken, written and images).’ Although I was not envisaging the 27 hours marathon discussion that occurred on Saturday, after we had been told we had a ‘deal’.

I started my blog on day 1 with noting that this meeting came just as all of us were preparing for the festive season (and for some it meant breaking their festive season early to join the throng at Bella Centre). So let me finish by wishing us all a relaxing break from climate negotiations and hope that 2010 will allow us all to finish what we started here in Bella Centre.

Buried Sunshine and the Energy Supply Chain

In my last blog I pondered three questions:
1) “Instead of burying CO2 at various locations around the world, could we not convert CO2 into a fuel ?”
2) “Is all the public focus on CO2 emissions justified, given the threat of a warming Arctic?”

NGO's Shipping and an organisation turning 250 years old

Dr Anne-Marie Warris' blog today is also an audio blog as she called us from outside of the Bella Centre last night to update us on the latest COP 15 happenings. Here is the audio file to listen to or download and below is the transcript of her phone in.

Talking with Tanaka and the Rebound Effect - an audio blog post

Today's blog was "phoned in" by Sean Cuthbert, one of the Lloyd's Register Group's leading climate change experts. Here is the audio file to listen to Sean's recap of the IEA meeting and his discussions with Executive Director Tanaka, as well as Head of the IEA Energy Efficiency Unit, Dr Jollands and Mr Kerr, the Senior Energy Analyst with their Energy Technology Policy Division at the IEA.
Here is the transcript of Sean's phone blog.

IEA Briefing and the Rebound Effect
Sean Cuthbert

Good morning I’m Sean Cuthbert from Lloyd’s Register Energy. And this morning I attended the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) morning session with regards to renewable energy, the energy outlook to 2050 and essentially a summary of their technology outlook reports as well.

Skeptics, Standards, and Peak “Everything”

“… No debate can be considered ‘healthy’ without an equal voice given to both sides. “ Such was my thought as I read about the recent meeting of global warming skeptics. However, the article quickly dispelled the notion that the climate change skeptics would put forward a convincing argument for their denial of a warming planet. The article portrayed an almost comical scene where the small number of delegates debated the various aspects of their theories and data without giving a cohesive view that would balance the ‘warming planet’ COP15 consensus.

A Climate for Change

Whatever agreements emerge from Copenhagen they will rely on people to enact them, both directly and indirectly. But it seems that people aren’t ready to embrace the need for change. According to The Times only 41% of people in Britain think that climate change is largely man-made, and even more worryingly, only a quarter of those surveyed think it’s a serious problem.

Lost the plot or?

Start of week 2 and reports indicate the waiting times at Bella centre have been getting longer. Late afternoon indications are that they have closed registration and will reduce NGO’s to 7000 individual max tomorrow, so the queues should be interesting…as of Thursday only about 100 NGO individuals will get in. Add to that the rumour that they are anticipating the high level segment will last until Sunday! So we continue to see pressure (both G77 and Annex I countries walked out of different meetings today but they have all reconvened behind closed doors) and focus but also an increasing sense of frustrating and confusion.

A weekend to remember in Copenhagen

Well the good news first it was sunny on Saturday and Sunday (Bella Centre closed but Minsters still meeting) which helped on Saturday when I got into the queue for the special additional passes we need to get into the COP as of Tuesday 15 December.

Halfway stage it may be but it does not feel like it at all.

Shipping, Sustainability and COP 15

Question - is this about the sustainability (read survival) of the shipping industry? - Or about how to implement sustainability in shipping?  The latter...whatever that means....
Thursday and Friday's events reminded me yet again that the shipping industry (whichever part we mean, have to wait for my illustration later in this blog) face a paradigm shift and a shift in understanding.

A little less or more Hopenhagen!

When I reported yesterday that the Chinese, UK and US delegations were publicly criticising each others proposals, Xie Zhenhua, the head of China's delegation and deputy chairman of the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) had not given his Reuters interview. It seems that my comments yesterday were somewhat understated. 

Three Blogs for Day 3

On day three of the COP 15, Madlen King, LRQA's Global Climate Change Manager, joined Sean Cuthbert and Dr Anne-Marie Warris at the conference. So today there are three blogs, one from each of our on-site experts:

Hopenhagen

Madlen King

On arrival in Copenhagen it’s very clear that the locals remain hopeful. It appears that for the duration of COP 15, Copenhagen has been renamed ‘Hopenhagen’, and rightly so.

Day Two - CDM Discussions

Please read Andrew's pre-CDM DOE meeting post here

Today, the 10th DOE/AIE Forum took place in Copenhagen and, as expected, there was much debate and discussion on a number of key issues affecting the DOE community.

Siddharth Yadav (SGS), Chair of the DOE Forum, reminded those gathered of the issues which the Forum had discussed with the EB over the last year, including validation and verification timelines, post registration changes to project design, retroactive application of guidance, materiality, Programme of Activities liability, the definition of a ‘technical area’, and the implications of recent rules relating to conflict of interest.

Day 2 at the COP 15 -IMO two-way communications and Power Stations

The two halves of today's blog are based around an IMO side event on one side and a chance meeting with the Head of Environment and Sustainable Development Policy for the European Electric industry's main lobby group.

IMO, the International Maritime Organisation, shared a side event with ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Both organisations are proactively trying to prove that they are solely capable of managing their sector's climate change issues.

Materiality and the Clean Development Mechanism

Today is the 10th meeting of the DOE/AIE Forum here in Copenhagen. The DOE/AIE Forum (Designated Operational Entities/Accredited Independent Entities) was originally established by the Executive Board as a means of enhancing the channels of communication between the Board and the DOE's and to provide guidance on decisions.

Day One at COP 15 - first impressions and our blogs of the day

An outdoor three hour wait in line to register in near freezing temperatures was not what I expected my first impressions of COP 15 in Copenhagen to be!

OK, lets get past that. I am here with two of the Lloyd's Register Group's leading climate change experts, Sean Cuthbert and Dr Anne-Marie Warris. Sean is here representing our energy business stream, and as fate would have it, we stood in line with Paul Genoa, Director of Policy Development for the Nuclear Energy Institute out of Washington D.C. Sean commented on their conversation:

COP 15 Day One - The Great Divide - America and Climate Change

As we approach COP15, the United States remains a polarized and split society on climate change. The factions are still strongly divided in their views on whether climate change is real, and if they accept that it is, many do not agree that the cause could possibly be anthropogenic. The impacts are so far away, both in time and space – even though they are getting closer by the day!
We have made progress in the House, but the Senate has many members that are still plagued with insecurities about making decisions related to climate change mitigation, when the changes will undoubtedly affect our society.

Last thoughts on my way to Copenhagen

So, it is all here - passport, ticket, money and energy – ouch where did that go? In getting ready to leave for Copenhagen like many others, I am struck by the commitment, drive and sheer positive energy that will be on display throughout the 2 weeks. This in the run up to the festive season where many of the key delegates would rather get ready for a relaxing time with their families.  I wonder if someone out there has calculated how much energy as individuals we will be expending in the two weeks….Anyone got an idea?

Verification and Polar Bears - a tour of COP15 news and Blogs

Today's post will take a look at some of the most interesting and insightful blogs and news items that are out there on the weekend leading up to the COP 15 global climate change conference. 

1) The World Resources Institute's blog today, On Global Warming: Trust But Verify compares the Copenhagen negotiations between China and US to the SALT talks between Russia and the US in the 1980's. The principle of trust through verification goes beyond nations and into corporate claims and actions and consumer trust. If we are serious about reducing GHG emissions, then it will take a unified effort between governments, organisations and consumers.

The Marine sector and COP 15 - what are the issues?

So what are the discussions on marine?
I am frequently asked about what are the issues in relation to ship emissions and why are they on the table. This blog is not the place for a detailed discussion but here are some hints on the background and data.

It is worth remembering that shipping is on the agenda but is fairly low down on the list of topics that will have to be agreed in Copenhagen. Following the debate is important for me as the negotiations on adaptation finance may veer off in one direction and the sector debate in another so shipping may find itself required to pay a tax to the adaptation fund as well as being in a sectoral agreement (so required to also hit specific emission reduction targets).

Climate Change - It's not easy to be optimistic

Watching the news and trying to predict an unpredictable outcome I am stuck by a dichotomy and a challenge. And yes they are linked.

The dichotomy first – science, IPCC and Lord Stern among many are clear climate change is real and is a challenge; on the other side of the coin we have the general public – which do not believe climate change is real or of serious concern. How will the dichotomy between those two play out in our politicians minds and aims as they sit down to negotiate in Copenhagen. Which way will the ‘tug of war’ go?

I am concerned that we the public are confused by the science and its argument and the dream of increasing affluence and freedom.

Clean across the globe

With COP 15 only a few days away, it was interesting to be in the host city shortly before the big event. With climate change posters in the airport, large advertising hoardings in the city centre and locals wondering how their seasonal shopping is going to be affected - there can be no doubt what's coming to Copenhagen before Christmas this year.

We were in Copenhagen holding a press briefing with technology innovator NanoNord A/S and Danish shipowners J.Lauritzen to talk about Lab-on-a-Ship™ (LOAS), an innovation in fuel management and measurement for the shipping industry. We brought two of the leading marine technical journalists, Craig Eason of Lloyd's List and Duncan Payne of Marine Propulsion and Machinery, to hear about the LOAS system - which has been on board two of Lauritzen's bulk carriers for the last year.

CCS and the Crystal Ball

As with Dr. Warris, the one question that is asked most frequently as the world watches the developments leading up to the COP 15 negotiations is, “What do I think will happen in Copenhagen?”

Both the mainstream media and alternative media outlets provide a plethora of different views and prognostications on the outcome of the latest round of climate change negotiations. But the main question for me is not “What will be the outcome?” but “Is our global climate changing?”.

I am a strong believer in fundamentals. Many sceptics push the view that our biosphere has natural warming and cooling cycles, and that currently we are entering a warming trend.