4 Months after COP15 in Copenhagen and where are we now?

In my closing blog at the end of COP 15 in Copenhagen I mentioned the issue of the future.

During the third week of March (22 to 26) we got our first indication of the post COP 15 negotiation landscape and how the ‘Copenhagen Accord’ fits. Why – because the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) met. We have also had the meeting of the UN High Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing – which, challenging enough for the maritime and aviation industry, is looking at (among others)a ‘levy’ on bunker fuel to raise money for adaptation. We will hear more about the preliminary outcome of their deliberations closer to the UNFCCC meeting in June

There have been many comments in relation to the IMO MEPC meeting already, including the IMO's website and this Carbon Positive article.
As well as a summary of the outcome.

But what insight did IMO MEPOC and last weekend’s UNFCCC Bonn negotiations provide us about future UNFCCC negotiations?

From my perspective the outcome of the IMO MEPC, which deals with all environmental issues, not just greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, provided mixed emotions:
• Pleasure at the clear leadership that was demonstrated by IMO.
• Pleasure at the fact that IMO unequivocally demonstrated that they can deal with the issues of climate change in relation to international maritime GHG emissions.
• Sadness at how hardline at times the positions between the various Member States became.
• Sadness that we have yet to find a formula of words that is less emotively charged but still fair in relation to the concepts embedded in ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ (CBDR)

Last weekend’s meeting in Bonn set out to: ‘The first sessions of the AWG-KP and AWG-LCA in 2010 will focus on the organization of work of both working groups this year, including the need for additional meeting time, with a view to reaching a successful conclusion of their work at COP 16 /CMP 6 in Cancun.’

The negotiators agreed to an additional two negotiations sessions of at least a week each between the meeting scheduled for June and the meeting in Cancun.

The reports from the Bonn meeting indicate that the ‘poker playing’ is continuing and that if anything the road post-Copenhagen is now even rockier.

Charting the road from here takes me back to a few critical challenges:
• USA domestic developments – where will they go now the health care bill has been signed? – This is a critical contribution to a positive development in Cancun in December
• Financing – another of those stumbling blocks. With the world slowly coming out of the recession we might see some serious movement here?
• To extend Kyoto or not? This is the other big argument that has yet to begin to be bridged
• ‘Copenhagen Accord’ commitments and its link with the UNFCCC – the meeting in Bonn this weekend did not real provide any further clues except to indicate that it may be a negotiating chip or not?

So back to the ‘watch this space’

NGO's Shipping and an organisation turning 250 years old

Dr Anne-Marie Warris' blog today is also an audio blog as she called us from outside of the Bella Centre last night to update us on the latest COP 15 happenings. Here is the audio file to listen to or download and below is the transcript of her phone in.

Lost the plot or?

Start of week 2 and reports indicate the waiting times at Bella centre have been getting longer. Late afternoon indications are that they have closed registration and will reduce NGO’s to 7000 individual max tomorrow, so the queues should be interesting…as of Thursday only about 100 NGO individuals will get in. Add to that the rumour that they are anticipating the high level segment will last until Sunday! So we continue to see pressure (both G77 and Annex I countries walked out of different meetings today but they have all reconvened behind closed doors) and focus but also an increasing sense of frustrating and confusion.

Climate Change - It's not easy to be optimistic

Watching the news and trying to predict an unpredictable outcome I am stuck by a dichotomy and a challenge. And yes they are linked.

The dichotomy first – science, IPCC and Lord Stern among many are clear climate change is real and is a challenge; on the other side of the coin we have the general public – which do not believe climate change is real or of serious concern. How will the dichotomy between those two play out in our politicians minds and aims as they sit down to negotiate in Copenhagen. Which way will the ‘tug of war’ go?

I am concerned that we the public are confused by the science and its argument and the dream of increasing affluence and freedom.

CCS and the Crystal Ball

As with Dr. Warris, the one question that is asked most frequently as the world watches the developments leading up to the COP 15 negotiations is, “What do I think will happen in Copenhagen?”

Both the mainstream media and alternative media outlets provide a plethora of different views and prognostications on the outcome of the latest round of climate change negotiations. But the main question for me is not “What will be the outcome?” but “Is our global climate changing?”.

I am a strong believer in fundamentals. Many sceptics push the view that our biosphere has natural warming and cooling cycles, and that currently we are entering a warming trend.

One week left to go and lots to do

As I prepare for the two weeks of watching and participating in the COP 15 negotiations, one question keeps coming my way: What do I think will happen in Copenhagen?

Watching the daily reports from the around the world – as until we all get to COP 15 that remains our best source of information – it feels like watching a poker game without being able to see the cards. Well that is not quite true, I do have some sense of where the issues might be headed and where the most pressure is being applied. Take the China story last week, with a pledge to cut their 2005 baseline emissions by up to 45% by 2020.