4 Months after COP15 in Copenhagen and where are we now?

In my closing blog at the end of COP 15 in Copenhagen I mentioned the issue of the future.

During the third week of March (22 to 26) we got our first indication of the post COP 15 negotiation landscape and how the ‘Copenhagen Accord’ fits. Why – because the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) met. We have also had the meeting of the UN High Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing – which, challenging enough for the maritime and aviation industry, is looking at (among others)a ‘levy’ on bunker fuel to raise money for adaptation. We will hear more about the preliminary outcome of their deliberations closer to the UNFCCC meeting in June

There have been many comments in relation to the IMO MEPC meeting already, including the IMO's website and this Carbon Positive article.
As well as a summary of the outcome.

But what insight did IMO MEPOC and last weekend’s UNFCCC Bonn negotiations provide us about future UNFCCC negotiations?

From my perspective the outcome of the IMO MEPC, which deals with all environmental issues, not just greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, provided mixed emotions:
• Pleasure at the clear leadership that was demonstrated by IMO.
• Pleasure at the fact that IMO unequivocally demonstrated that they can deal with the issues of climate change in relation to international maritime GHG emissions.
• Sadness at how hardline at times the positions between the various Member States became.
• Sadness that we have yet to find a formula of words that is less emotively charged but still fair in relation to the concepts embedded in ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ (CBDR)

Last weekend’s meeting in Bonn set out to: ‘The first sessions of the AWG-KP and AWG-LCA in 2010 will focus on the organization of work of both working groups this year, including the need for additional meeting time, with a view to reaching a successful conclusion of their work at COP 16 /CMP 6 in Cancun.’

The negotiators agreed to an additional two negotiations sessions of at least a week each between the meeting scheduled for June and the meeting in Cancun.

The reports from the Bonn meeting indicate that the ‘poker playing’ is continuing and that if anything the road post-Copenhagen is now even rockier.

Charting the road from here takes me back to a few critical challenges:
• USA domestic developments – where will they go now the health care bill has been signed? – This is a critical contribution to a positive development in Cancun in December
• Financing – another of those stumbling blocks. With the world slowly coming out of the recession we might see some serious movement here?
• To extend Kyoto or not? This is the other big argument that has yet to begin to be bridged
• ‘Copenhagen Accord’ commitments and its link with the UNFCCC – the meeting in Bonn this weekend did not real provide any further clues except to indicate that it may be a negotiating chip or not?

So back to the ‘watch this space’

Copenhagen Accord, what are bloggers saying today?

Today's blog is the final daily update of the Lloyd's Register COP 15 series. We will be back after the holidays with an update from each of our key bloggers. They will each share their thoughts on the Copenhagen Accord and what it might mean for their respective areas of expertise.
Here are what some of the most influential climate change blogs have to say about the conference's outcome.

1) The BBC's environment analyst Roger Harrabin in his blog today, said

World leaders will surely never again agree to meet on this issue in parallel with the UN negotiating process. It was too bloody and it will have muddied many of their reputations.

2) The BBC's correspondent's log shows what the key players reactions were as the deal was being done.
3) The climateprogress.org blog sees the Copenhagen Accord as boosting the chances that the US Senate will pass binding legislation regarding the reduction of US emissions.
4) The Washington Post's analysis of the Accord is interesting, as they see the outcome as a clear signal that the US and China will be dictating future global climate change policy.
5) The Climate Interactive research team are amongst the first to analyse the numbers in the Accord, and they are less than impressed, saying

simulations of the C-ROADS model show a large gap between the targets in the final Copenhagen agreement and the commitments offered by individual nations.

6) Oneworld.net's on location blogger has an excellent post on the final hours of negotiations and the painful decisions that world leaders had to make in those final moments:

Every leader had to decide what response, at this extraordinarily precarious moment in human history, would most likely result in success down the road.

Mohamed Nasheed knows the science, he knows the politics, and I'm confident he's acting in the best interest of stabilizing the global climate as much and as soon as humanly possible. If this "deal" is good enough for him, then it's good enough for me.

We will be back in January with a further update on what COP 15 and the Copenhagen Accord means for Lloyd's Register and our clients.

Happy Holidays!

Alex Briggs

Buried Sunshine and the Energy Supply Chain

In my last blog I pondered three questions:
1) “Instead of burying CO2 at various locations around the world, could we not convert CO2 into a fuel ?”
2) “Is all the public focus on CO2 emissions justified, given the threat of a warming Arctic?”

NGO's Shipping and an organisation turning 250 years old

Dr Anne-Marie Warris' blog today is also an audio blog as she called us from outside of the Bella Centre last night to update us on the latest COP 15 happenings. Here is the audio file to listen to or download and below is the transcript of her phone in.

Talking with Tanaka and the Rebound Effect - an audio blog post

Today's blog was "phoned in" by Sean Cuthbert, one of the Lloyd's Register Group's leading climate change experts. Here is the audio file to listen to Sean's recap of the IEA meeting and his discussions with Executive Director Tanaka, as well as Head of the IEA Energy Efficiency Unit, Dr Jollands and Mr Kerr, the Senior Energy Analyst with their Energy Technology Policy Division at the IEA.
Here is the transcript of Sean's phone blog.

IEA Briefing and the Rebound Effect
Sean Cuthbert

Good morning I’m Sean Cuthbert from Lloyd’s Register Energy. And this morning I attended the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) morning session with regards to renewable energy, the energy outlook to 2050 and essentially a summary of their technology outlook reports as well.

Skeptics, Standards, and Peak “Everything”

“… No debate can be considered ‘healthy’ without an equal voice given to both sides. “ Such was my thought as I read about the recent meeting of global warming skeptics. However, the article quickly dispelled the notion that the climate change skeptics would put forward a convincing argument for their denial of a warming planet. The article portrayed an almost comical scene where the small number of delegates debated the various aspects of their theories and data without giving a cohesive view that would balance the ‘warming planet’ COP15 consensus.

A Climate for Change

Whatever agreements emerge from Copenhagen they will rely on people to enact them, both directly and indirectly. But it seems that people aren’t ready to embrace the need for change. According to The Times only 41% of people in Britain think that climate change is largely man-made, and even more worryingly, only a quarter of those surveyed think it’s a serious problem.

A weekend to remember in Copenhagen

Well the good news first it was sunny on Saturday and Sunday (Bella Centre closed but Minsters still meeting) which helped on Saturday when I got into the queue for the special additional passes we need to get into the COP as of Tuesday 15 December.

Halfway stage it may be but it does not feel like it at all.

Shipping, Sustainability and COP 15

Question - is this about the sustainability (read survival) of the shipping industry? - Or about how to implement sustainability in shipping?  The latter...whatever that means....
Thursday and Friday's events reminded me yet again that the shipping industry (whichever part we mean, have to wait for my illustration later in this blog) face a paradigm shift and a shift in understanding.

Three Blogs for Day 3

On day three of the COP 15, Madlen King, LRQA's Global Climate Change Manager, joined Sean Cuthbert and Dr Anne-Marie Warris at the conference. So today there are three blogs, one from each of our on-site experts:

Hopenhagen

Madlen King

On arrival in Copenhagen it’s very clear that the locals remain hopeful. It appears that for the duration of COP 15, Copenhagen has been renamed ‘Hopenhagen’, and rightly so.

Day Two - CDM Discussions

Please read Andrew's pre-CDM DOE meeting post here

Today, the 10th DOE/AIE Forum took place in Copenhagen and, as expected, there was much debate and discussion on a number of key issues affecting the DOE community.

Siddharth Yadav (SGS), Chair of the DOE Forum, reminded those gathered of the issues which the Forum had discussed with the EB over the last year, including validation and verification timelines, post registration changes to project design, retroactive application of guidance, materiality, Programme of Activities liability, the definition of a ‘technical area’, and the implications of recent rules relating to conflict of interest.

Materiality and the Clean Development Mechanism

Today is the 10th meeting of the DOE/AIE Forum here in Copenhagen. The DOE/AIE Forum (Designated Operational Entities/Accredited Independent Entities) was originally established by the Executive Board as a means of enhancing the channels of communication between the Board and the DOE's and to provide guidance on decisions.

Last thoughts on my way to Copenhagen

So, it is all here - passport, ticket, money and energy – ouch where did that go? In getting ready to leave for Copenhagen like many others, I am struck by the commitment, drive and sheer positive energy that will be on display throughout the 2 weeks. This in the run up to the festive season where many of the key delegates would rather get ready for a relaxing time with their families.  I wonder if someone out there has calculated how much energy as individuals we will be expending in the two weeks….Anyone got an idea?